Cricket Betting

Cricket asks more of a pricing model than any other sport LadBet covers, because a single match can last five days, can be abandoned without a ball bowled, and can be decided by a calculation that most spectators could not perform from memory. All three of those are ordinary occurrences rather than edge cases, so the rules that govern them are set out here before the markets are.

The three formats price differently

Treating a Test, a one-day international and a twenty-over match as versions of the same thing is the quickest way to misread a price. They reward different skills, produce different distributions of result, and carry entirely different weather risk.

Test cricket

Five days, three results, and a draw that is often the most likely outcome on a flat surface in the fourth innings. The draw being live is what separates Test pricing from everything else: a match can be utterly dominated for four days and still finish level, which means an in-play price on a winning side stays longer than the state of play seems to justify. Weather matters here as a route to the draw rather than as a route to abandonment.

One-day internationals

Fifty overs a side, no draw in normal circumstances, and a strong correlation between winning the toss and the conditions at the ground. Day-night matches under lights with dew in the second innings can make chasing significantly easier, and that is priced in before the toss rather than discovered afterwards.

Twenty-over cricket

The shortest format has the widest range of plausible outcomes and therefore the shortest odds-on prices you will see anywhere in cricket, because variance keeps underdogs alive. A side can be beaten comfortably by a team that would lose nine times in ten over fifty overs, and the market has to allow for it.

Markets beyond the result

The result market in cricket is often the least interesting thing on the page, particularly in a long format where the outcome sits in the balance for days.

Top batter and top bowler

Priced per innings and per side, and heavily driven by expected position in the order and expected overs. An opener has more balls to face than a number six and is priced accordingly; a front-line spinner on a turning pitch is priced on the assumption they will bowl their full allocation. When the assumption breaks — a night-watchman, a bowler off the field with a niggle — the price was wrong for a reason nobody could have priced.

Method of dismissal and player runs

Caught is far and away the most common dismissal and is priced short for that reason. Bowled and leg before follow, and run out sits well behind them despite how often it feels decisive. Player runs markets work as over and under lines and are the cleanest way to bet an opinion about a specific batter without also needing to be right about the match.

Rain, overs and the calculation

This is the section that costs people money, and it is entirely avoidable knowledge.

A reduced match is still a match

If overs are lost but a result is reached under the official method, bets on the result stand and settle on that official result. The revised target is not a technicality — it is the result. Anyone who backed a side that was well ahead on raw runs and lost on the recalculation has lost the bet, and there is no provision anywhere in the sport for treating that differently.

Abandonment and tied matches

Where no result is possible, match markets are void and stakes returned, with the exception of markets already determined. A tie is a distinct outcome and is priced as such where it applies; where a tie is broken by a super over, the result market settles on the super over outcome but most side markets do not include it.

Markets voided by a reduction

Total runs, innings totals and some player markets are void if the innings is materially shortened, because the question they asked no longer has a comparable answer. Which markets survive a reduction is stated on the coupon, and the betting rules page carries the general principle.

In-play cricket

Ball-by-ball pricing on international matches and major domestic competitions, with a suspension between deliveries in the situations that need one.

What moves a price

Wickets, obviously, but the size of the move depends enormously on which wicket it is. A top-order dismissal in the fourth innings of a Test moves a price further than three wickets in the first innings of the match, because it happens against a known target with known time remaining. In the short format, a single over can move a match price thirty points in either direction without a wicket falling at all.

Reviews and stoppages

Markets suspend during a review and during a rain break. A rain break in particular is a genuine repricing event rather than a pause, because the overs calculation changes with every minute lost and the market that reopens is answering a different question from the one it closed on.

The session clock in the app is worth a glance now and then. For a conversation with somebody impartial about it, try 0808 8020 133 at any point. An account requires you to be at least 18.