Premier League Betting

The Premier League takes more money than every other competition on the LadBet sportsbook combined, which means it gets the tightest prices and the deepest coverage of anything we price. It is also the sharpest market on the site, because a market with that much money through it has been thought about by a great many people.

Match markets

A fixture opens on the Monday before it is played and the book fills out through the week as team news firms up.

The standard set

Result, double chance, draw no bet, both teams to score, over and under at every half-goal line from 0.5 to 6.5, correct score, half-time and full-time, winning margin, and a handicap line. On a Saturday-three-o’clock fixture all of it is live from Monday.

Player markets

Anytime, first and last goalscorer for every forward and most midfielders, plus shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls committed and to be carded. These are priced from expected minutes as much as from ability, which is why a confirmed start moves a player price further than a good run of form does.

Season-long markets

The outright book opens in June and runs to the final day. Four markets carry most of the interest.

Title and top four

Both settle on the final league table, with our position rules following the competition’s own tie-breaks. Top four is a market that moves late and sharply, because the gap between fourth and fifth is usually decided in the last month rather than over the season.

Relegation

Priced as to-be-relegated rather than to-finish-bottom, so three selections win. It is the outright market where in-season prices move furthest, because a mid-table team on a bad run can go from unbacked to prominent in a fortnight.

Top goalscorer

Settled on league goals only. Cup and European goals do not count, which is the single most common misreading of this market. Dead heats apply where two players finish level, and the each-way page explains what that does to a return.

The rhythm of a Premier League week

A fixture list that repeats thirty-eight times develops a pattern, and the pattern is more useful than any individual tip.

Monday to Thursday

Prices open and sit. Very little money goes through, so the book is at its loosest and also at its least informed. Anything you back here is backed without the team news, the weather or the referee appointment, and all three of those will be known by Friday afternoon.

Friday and Saturday morning

Press conferences land, injury lists firm up and the referee appointments are published. This is the window where most of the informed money moves, and where a price on a goal total will usually settle close to where it finishes.

The hour before kick-off

Confirmed line-ups. The single biggest information event of the week, and the one that moves player markets furthest. A forward confirmed to start can shorten by a third on an anytime scorer market in the space of two minutes.

Things that do not move a price as much as people expect

Three pieces of received wisdom get quoted at us regularly and none of them carries the weight it is given.

Recent form

A run of results is already in the price, usually before the run is obvious enough to talk about. Markets reprice on underlying performance well ahead of the table catching up, which is why a team on four straight wins sometimes shortens hardly at all.

Head-to-head records

Two clubs whose squads have turned over twice since the fixtures being quoted share a badge and very little else. Historical meetings between the same institutions are close to worthless as a predictor, and our prices treat them accordingly.

A midweek European tie

This one does matter, but less than the fixture-congestion argument suggests, and mainly through rotation rather than fatigue. The useful question is who will be rested, not whether the legs will be tired.

When to look at a price

Two windows are worth knowing about if you have a view on a match.

Early in the week

Prices are at their loosest on Monday and Tuesday because little money has gone through and team news is unknown. That cuts both ways: a value price early is also a price taken without information you will have by Friday.

An hour before kick-off

Confirmed line-ups land roughly an hour out, and that is the largest single information event on any fixture. Goal totals and player markets move hardest; the result market usually moves least, because the market has already priced in the likely absences.

In-play

The full book stays open through the ninety, with suspensions on goals, penalties, cards and VAR reviews. Cash out is available on almost everything, including bet builder selections, and the cash out page covers how the figure is arrived at.

A word on VAR: a check suspends the affected markets and, where a goal is subsequently disallowed, bets settled on that goal are corrected. We do not reclaim money already paid out in error, but we do reinstate bets that were wrongly settled as losers.

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